I don't think you got my point. If the businesses were not shut down, but the risks were advertised and understood, many, many customers would still have stayed home, and a lot of people would have gone stir-crazy. It's impossible to say how much of the lost business and depression was the result of mandatory action and how much was the result of living with the risk of COVID.

The alternative to a shut-down is not Sweden. The alternative to a shut-down is persuasion. In the absence of a "shut-down," the authorities would have instead URGED people not to go out, and most would have taken the advice. (Europeans are better at cooperation than Americans.)