The recession is inevitable because there is less capacity available than before. If we can't get goods, we can't buy them, and if we can't buy them, we will buy fewer of them. That's a recession. Sudden scarcity is the cause; everything else is rationing.

Inflation rations goods by price. Everyone is obliged to renegotiate their purchasing power, and those with the least bargaining power must do without.

Raising interest rates rations goods by pricing some people out of the credit market. The people affected by rising rates are different from those affected by inflation (although there is much overlap), and there are fewer externalities related to renegotiating prices. Merchants don't have to raise prices or wages to cope with higher interest rates. The customers just stop showing up, first at the big-ticket store and then, when the people who make and sell those products lose their jobs, everywhere else.

I think the description of banking in this article is not right. Banks don't lend money. Banks extend credit and create money. They can always find the money to cover their loans because all the money that is created by lending finds its way into the banking system, where banks can borrow it, either as deposits or from each other. And, there's always the Fed's discount window. QE made interbank borrowing unnecessary at a time when banks' impaired capital made them leery of lending to each other.

QE also pushed investors out on the yield curve by lowering what they could earn on Treasuries. That stimulated investment and spending via the "wealth effect" as asset prices rose. QT will draw money from riskier investments by making Treasuries available at higher yields. That will reduce asset prices, which will reduce the wealth effect, resulting in less demand for luxury goods, one more way of adjusting demand to reduced supply.

Anyway you slice it, though, fewer goods means less activity. Blaming anything else implies the recession can be averted. It can't.