There's an old joke about whether architecture, medicine, or lawyering was the first profession. The punch line is the lawyer's: "Who do you think caused the chaos?" I don't see how you can attribute the lower inflation rate to the "slowing economy" without asking why the economy is slowing, and I don't see how you can answer that question without taking into account the cost of financing purchases by business and consumers alike. Higher rates slow the economy. To say the slower economy is slowing inflation is like saying that it's hot outside on account of the weather.

When the supply chain breaks, there's less stuff, which means the economy has to ration. Inflation rations by price; interest rates ration by creditworthiness. Either way, for equilibrium to be restored, less goods must be bought (because there are less of them to buy), and that result is, by definition a recession. So of course a broken supply chain results in a recession. When the supply chain heals, interest rates will fall to prevent deflation, and life will go on.

One bit of inflation that will remain, I suspect, is that which results from de-globalization, e.g., the CHIPS Act. We cannot buy important goods from China, no matter how much it costs to make them here or get them from friends. If that means higher prices, then so be it; call it a sales tax to fund the national defense.

Energy prices rise and fall. OPEC's move will have some effect, but in the scheme of things, the real action is in the supply chain area. In that regard, the US really needs to subsidize production, especially as the Fed raises the cost of capital. That's where our dysfunctional Congress will cost us.