You're right that Trump is not entitled to leniency on the basis of his prior good behavior. But the idea that he committed "serious felonies" is just plain silly. He hid a peccadillo. He paid off a blackmailer and concealed the fact he did so for the same reason he paid her off. I'm not convinced he committed a crime, much less a "serious" one, at least not in the sense that should influence his sentence.

We've been down this road before. I have read Judge Merchan's memo denying the defense motion to dismiss, and I have read his instructions to the jury. I think both contain important errors of law regarding the threshold issue of "intend to defraud." If we assume that this conviction actually hurts Trump's chances in the election, I'd be delighted if his appeal is not heard before November, because I want him to lose the election. But when it is heard, I like his chances.